Effect of Uncertainties on Demand Forecasting
نویسنده
چکیده
The electricity planning department of eThekwini Municipality performs a power system load forecast based on individual substation forecasts. The individual substation forecasts have uncertainty. It is desired to understand the effect of these uncertainties on the accuracy of the total system forecast. A Monte Carlo simulation of the forecasted system loadflow was performed. By means of this application of Monte Carlo, the planners can observe and visualize the extent to which uncertainties can affect the city’s total forecast. What is presented is not new theory but rather the application of well-known MC simulation method in the context of this developing nation municipal power transmission and distribution system.
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